October 15, 2008 06:09 PM UTC

BREAKING: NRSC To Abandon Schaffer?

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• by: Colorado Pols

We’re hearing credible rumors this morning that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will shortly pull out of the Colorado Senate race, citing dwindling cash reserves, Schaffer’s plummeting poll numbers, and unexpectedly strong threats to incumbent GOP Senators around the country. Such a move would effectively represent the end of the Bob Schaffer’s run, as national donors follow the NRSC’s cue.

Some foreshadowing to this situation was indicated the day before yesterday in a report by Politico.com:

The Republican National Committee, growing nervous over the prospect of Democrats’ winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, is considering tapping into a $5 million line of credit this week to aid an increasing number of vulnerable incumbents, top Republicans say.

With party strategists fearing a bloodbath at the polls, GOP officials are shifting to triage mode, determining who can be saved and where to best spend their money. [Pols emphasis]

And with the House and Senate Republican campaign committees being drastically outspent by their Democratic counterparts, and outside groups such as Freedom’s Watch offering far less help than was once anticipated, Republicans are turning to the national party committee as a lender of last resort.

A decision is imminent because television time must be reserved and paid for upfront, and available slots are dwindling.

A representative for the RNC would neither confirm nor deny that it was considering the move…

And the Denver Post reports this morning:

Among the challenges for Schaffer is that the roiling political landscape is also forcing Republican backers to triage resources, scurrying to protect vulnerable incumbents at the cost of open seats like Colorado’s.

After together spending nearly $2 million in Colorado Senate ads in the last two weeks of September, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Freedom’s Watch – two of Schaffer’s biggest backers – suddenly pulled out.

Those two groups are now spending millions in Senate races in Oregon and North Carolina, where Republican incumbents are at risk…

The NRSC won’t say anything until the last possible moment, but from what we’re hearing it’s for real. The latest polling shows strong trends against GOP incumbents all over the country: In Minnesota where Al Franken is now posting small leads on Norm Coleman, in North Carolina where Elizabeth Dole is unexpectedly running behind challenger Kay Hagan, even in Kentucky where Democrat Bruce Lunsford has pulled with 7 points of Mitch McConnell.

Bottom line: The GOP’s morale is very close to spent at this point. They are fighting too many rearguard actions as races around the country start to lock in. And as much as they value holding Wayne Allard’s Senate seat, there is a growing recognition that Bob Schaffer is headed for an unpreventable loss, and scarce resources must be deployed elsewhere.